Hunch Looked, found nothing AD 1576

Cocoliztli broke out in central Mexico after drought (within two years)

Tested 25 October 2026. In the Mexican Drought Atlas the central highlands were not dry in the year before the 14 epidemics (mean z +0.34). The 16th-century megadrought is strong in Durango, the northern record used in 2002, but in the central highlands 1540 to 1580 was one of the wettest periods of the last 600 years. Two central-Mexico records agree that the 1570s were wet there. The 1540s are disputed between records.

How it connects

This hunch is about What caused the cocoliztli epidemics that killed most of Mexico's people (1545, 1576 and later)?

This hunch we read it in Acuna-Soto, Stahle, Cleaveland and Therrell 2002, Megadrought and megadeath in 16th century Mexico, Emerging Infectious Diseases 8:360

This hunch is argued against by Queretaro bald cypress: the worst drought in 600 years ended in 1539; 1540 to 1580 was the wettest stretch the epidemics came after the drought ended, in the wettest decades

This hunch is argued against by Drought atlas: cocoliztli years were wet in central Mexico; the 16th-century megadrought was northern no drought the year before; central Mexico wet in 1540-1580

This hunch came from this step Tested the cocoliztli epidemics against the Mexican Drought Atlas