We hunt for old mysteries by matching two kinds of clues.
Long ago, people wrote down strange things they saw in the sky and the weather. Nature kept its own diary too, in tree rings, ice and the leftovers of exploded stars. When a clue from people and a clue from nature point to the same year, we have a hunch. If a second country's records agree, the hunch might become an answer.
How a mystery gets solved here
- Clue from people
Find something written long ago. A Chinese court diary. A monk's chronicle. A story told by elders.
- Clue from nature
Find something nature recorded in the same year. A spike in tree rings. Ash in Antarctic ice.
- Hunch
If they match and nobody has noticed, write it down as a hunch. Say what would prove it wrong.
- Check
Look in another country's records for the same year. Two independent witnesses beat one.
Where we are right now
Our best hunches today
The 1052 white vapour matches the 1052 radiocarbon candidate
Korea's violet glow of 25 October 1279 falls in the window for the 1279 to 1280 radiocarbon jump, and the main paper missed it
Strasbourg 1518 came after a great drought and two years of dear bread
What we do next
- Get the two paywalled papersMiyahara et al. 2022 (GRL) decides whether our pairing of aurora records with the 1261, 1268 and 1279 candidates is new or already published…
- Find someone who described the eclipse of 3 November 1808One description of the Moon's colour on that night decides whether the eruption came before or after November 1808. Best places: US newspape…
Last thing we did
Read the 2007 Smithsonian account: the drift result was already known
Ken pasted Blumberg 2007. Richardson and MacGregor had already used ICOADS and found the ship sailed herself from Santa Maria. Our check reproduces that. Problem set to PARTIAL (their scenario: false alarm about leaking near land). The storm after abandonment, against the 1873 reasoning, is the only possibly new detail.