Discovery Board

Clues from nature

Something nature recorded by itself: tree rings, ice, rock layers, or the leftovers of an exploded star.

From people From nature
Base rate: an all-day fog in Istanbul in late spring almost never happens The mystery eruption of 1452/53 and the omens at the fall of ConstantinopleThe 1453 omens were made by the volcano
Check that works: ergot epidemics come in cold summers What caused the dancing plagues (1374, 1518 and others)?
Fifteen impact sites young enough for people to have seen them Do myths remember meteorite impacts?Sky-fall myths are no more common near young craters than anywhere else
The six visible Pleiads are the six bright ones; then comes the biggest brightness step in the cluster Why do so many cultures call the Pleiades 'seven sisters' and tell of a lost one?
102,000 years ago Pleione is drifting toward Atlas: 5.0 arcmin apart now, about 8.6 arcmin 100,000 years ago Why do so many cultures call the Pleiades 'seven sisters' and tell of a lost one?The lost-sister stories date from 100,000 years ago, when Pleione stood clear of Atlas
12,800 years ago Greenland platinum spike, 12,800 years ago Younger Dryas trigger, 12,800 years ago
1223 BC No candidate eclipse was securely total at Ugarit; 1223 BC about 5 to 11 percent When and why did the Late Bronze Age cities fall (about 1200 to 1180 BC)?
1207 BC The 30 October 1207 BC ring of fire did cross Gibeon, near sunset Did Joshua's 'Sun stand still' at Gibeon remember a solar eclipse?Joshua's 'Sun stand still' was the annular eclipse of 30 October 1207 BC
1200 BC Base rate: about 1.6 central eclipses over Gibeon in 200 years (1300 to 1100 BC) Did Joshua's 'Sun stand still' at Gibeon remember a solar eclipse?Joshua's 'Sun stand still' was the annular eclipse of 30 October 1207 BC
1178 BC Base rate: the Odyssey's clues fit some new Moon about once every 64 years Does the Odyssey record the eclipse of 16 April 1178 BC?
1178 BC The 16 April 1178 BC eclipse: only about a 1 in 3 chance it was total at Ithaca Does the Odyssey record the eclipse of 16 April 1178 BC?
660 BC Radiocarbon spike 660 BC 660 BC Miyake event
AD 185 Supernova remnant RCW 86 185 supernova
AD 386 Remnant G7.7-3.7 386 guest star
AD 393 Remnant RX J1713.7-3946 393 guest star
AD 774 Radiocarbon spike 774 to 775 774 Miyake event
AD 837 Remnant IC 443 837 guest stars
AD 850 Yok Balum and Cariaco: a drier era overall, but they disagree on which decades Did drought bring down the Classic Maya cities (about 750 to 910)?
AD 993 Radiocarbon spike 993 to 994 993 Miyake event
AD 1006 Supernova remnant SN 1006 1006 supernova
AD 1052 Tree-ring radiocarbon jump between the 1052 and 1053 rings (English oak STK-C10) 1052 carbon-14 candidateThe 1052 white vapour matches the 1052 radiocarbon candidate
AD 1053 California full-ring sequoia (Eastoe 2019): radiocarbon rise between the 1052 and 1053 rings 1052 carbon-14 candidateThe 1052 white vapour matches the 1052 radiocarbon candidate
AD 1053 Kujawy oak, Poland: radiocarbon rises from the 1053 ring and peaks in 1055 1052 carbon-14 candidateThe 1052 white vapour matches the 1052 radiocarbon candidate
AD 1054 Crab Nebula 1054 supernova
AD 1054 Europe had nearly the same view of the 1054 star as China Why did Europe barely record the supernova of 1054?
AD 1054 Europe recorded only about 4 or 5 of the 11 comets China recorded in the 11th century Why did Europe barely record the supernova of 1054?
AD 1054 Furness Abbey oak, England: no clear jump at 1052 to 1053, a small rise 1054 to 1055 1052 carbon-14 candidateThe 1054 supernova, not the Sun, made the carbon-14 rise of 1053 to 1055
AD 1054 The Japanese '4th month' date for the 1054 star is impossible; the 5th month fits Why did Europe barely record the supernova of 1054?
AD 1055 California sequoia and Finnish pine: radiocarbon rise around 1054 to 1055 at both sites 1052 carbon-14 candidate1054 supernovaThe 1054 supernova, not the Sun, made the carbon-14 rise of 1053 to 1055
AD 1098 No radiocarbon spike in 1098 to 1100 A great aurora in September 1098, seen in Europe, and perhaps in Kyoto?
AD 1108 Ice-core sulfate spike, 1108 to 1110 1108 to 1110 eruptions
AD 1181 Nebula Pa 30 1181 supernova
AD 1230 Ice-core sulfate 1230 Antarctic, 1231 to 1232 Greenland 1229 eruption (ice cores said 1230)
AD 1261 Small radiocarbon rise, 1261 to 1262 (Miyahara 2022) 1261 carbon-14 candidate1261: no sky record falls in the right window, and the obvious one was already considered
AD 1262 Greenland-only sulfate around 1262: a northern eruption whose haze stayed low 1261 carbon-14 candidate
AD 1268 Largest of the three 13th-century candidates, 1268 to 1269 (Miyahara 2022) 1268 carbon-14 candidate1268: we thought nobody saw it, but Korea did, and it is already published
AD 1279 Radiocarbon rise 1279 to 1280: three labs, three sizes 1279 carbon-14 candidateKorea's violet glow of 25 October 1279 falls in the window for the 1279 to 1280 radiocarbon jump, and the main paper missed it
AD 1285 Antarctic sulfur from the 1286 eruption starts rising in August 1285 1286 eruption: a big sulfur signal that left the Moon brightThe 1286 eruption really happened in 1285
AD 1286 Antarctic sulfate spike, about 1286 1286 eruption: a big sulfur signal that left the Moon bright
AD 1450 Pinatubo's Buag eruption, recalibrated: AD 1438 to 1454 (68%), 1426 to 1469 (95%) Pinatubo's Buag eruption made the 1453 sulfate signal
AD 1453 A total eclipse of the Moon on 16 November 1453, high over Korea and China The mystery eruption of 1452/53 and the omens at the fall of ConstantinopleDaily Korean records can date the 1452/53 eruption to the month
AD 1453 Ice cores: a large northern eruption in 1453 (eVolv2k version 4) The mystery eruption of 1452/53 and the omens at the fall of Constantinople
AD 1453 Sulfur isotopes: the 1453 volcano was outside the tropics, near or upwind of Greenland The mystery eruption of 1452/53 and the omens at the fall of Constantinople
AD 1453 The 22 May 1453 eclipse was a partial one, rising at sunset over Constantinople The mystery eruption of 1452/53 and the omens at the fall of Constantinople
AD 1453 Tree rings: summer 1453 was the coldest in Europe for decades The mystery eruption of 1452/53 and the omens at the fall of ConstantinopleDaily Korean records can date the 1452/53 eruption to the month
AD 1458 Ice-core sulfate and glass shards, 1458 to 1459 1458 eruption pairThe second 1458 volcano matches no known eruption: a continental-crust rhyolite, far south, never studied
AD 1458 The 1458 rhyolite glass in Antarctic ice: what kind of volcano made it 1458 eruption pairThe second 1458 volcano matches no known eruption: a continental-crust rhyolite, far south, never studied
AD 1485 Tree-ring and document summer temperatures for Europe, 5 degree grid English sweating sickness: what was it?Sweating sickness followed seed-boom years, as modern European hantavirus does
AD 1485 Tree-ring summer wetness for lowland England, 1400 to 1650 English sweating sickness: what was it?Sweating sickness outbreaks followed slightly wet summers: a weak hint that did not strengthen
AD 1516 Strasbourg grain prices: dear in 1516 and 1517, normal again in 1518 What caused the dancing plagues (1374, 1518 and others)?Strasbourg 1518 came after a great drought and two years of dear bread
AD 1517 The year before the 1518 dancing plague: a severe spring drought What caused the dancing plagues (1374, 1518 and others)?Strasbourg 1518 came after a great drought and two years of dear bread
AD 1545 Puebla maize record: good harvests in the 1570s, poor in the 1540s, no signal in epidemic years What caused the cocoliztli epidemics that killed most of Mexico's people (1545, 1576 and later)?
AD 1545 Queretaro bald cypress: the worst drought in 600 years ended in 1539; 1540 to 1580 was the wettest stretch What caused the cocoliztli epidemics that killed most of Mexico's people (1545, 1576 and later)?
AD 1572 Tycho remnant 1572 supernova
AD 1576 Drought atlas: cocoliztli years were wet in central Mexico; the 16th-century megadrought was northern What caused the cocoliztli epidemics that killed most of Mexico's people (1545, 1576 and later)?Cocoliztli broke out in wet years in central Mexico
AD 1587 Seasonal rainfall atlas: the Roanoke drought was 1586 to 1588, worst in 1587 Why did the Roanoke 'Lost Colony' (1587) and early Jamestown suffer so badly?The Roanoke drought began in 1586 and also hit Ralph Lane's first colony
AD 1604 Kepler remnant 1604 supernova
AD 1610 Jamestown deaths and drought: the archived numbers give r = -0.11, not the published -0.71 Why did the Roanoke 'Lost Colony' (1587) and early Jamestown suffer so badly?
AD 1718 Tree-ring summer wetness for northern France, 1716 to 1874 English sweating sickness: what was it?Sweating sickness outbreaks followed slightly wet summers: a weak hint that did not strengthen
AD 1809 Ice-core sulfate spike, 1809, tropical 1808 mystery eruptionLook west of the Americas for December 1808
AD 1809 Two kinds of volcanic glass in the 1809 ice layer: andesite in Antarctica, dacite in the Yukon 1808 mystery eruptionHobbyist idea: Putana in Chile was one of several eruptions behind the 1809 signal
AD 1831 Ice-core sulfate spike, 1831 1831 mystery eruption
AD 1872 Ship logs: gales along the drift route on 26-27 Nov and a force 10-12 north-west storm on 30 Nov to 2 Dec Why was the Mary Celeste found sailing with no one aboard (December 1872)?Mostly known: the drift fits abandonment on 25 Nov (Richardson 2007); only the storm of 30 Nov to 2 Dec against the 1873 'no heavy weather' argument may be new
AD 1872 The 1872 reanalysis is too blurry here: it misses the gales the ships logged Why was the Mary Celeste found sailing with no one aboard (December 1872)?
AD 1872 The real winds make the 375-mile drift easy in distance, but she must have sailed across the wind, not just drifted Why was the Mary Celeste found sailing with no one aboard (December 1872)?Mostly known: the drift fits abandonment on 25 Nov (Richardson 2007); only the storm of 30 Nov to 2 Dec against the 1873 'no heavy weather' argument may be new
AD 1908 Tunguska airburst, 30 June 1908 1908 Tunguska
AD 1920 US death rates 1910 to 1938: encephalitis did not rise in 1918; it peaked in 1920 and 1923 What caused encephalitis lethargica, the 'sleepy sickness' of 1917 to 1928?Sleepy sickness and flu rise in the same years
AD 1924 England and Wales 1919 to 1937: sleepy sickness peaked in 1924 (5,039 cases), not after the 1918 flu What caused encephalitis lethargica, the 'sleepy sickness' of 1917 to 1928?
AD 1924 Scotland 1921 to 1937: sleepy sickness peaked in 1924 and did not follow the flu years What caused encephalitis lethargica, the 'sleepy sickness' of 1917 to 1928?