Hunch Not checked yet AD 1453

The 1453 omens were made by the volcano

Checked 25 October 2026. Of the four omens: (1) the strange Moon of 22 May was an ordinary partial eclipse rising at sunset; no volcano needed, and Barbaro says the air was crystal clear. (2) A thunderstorm with hail in early June is ordinary. (3) A fog lasting all day is almost unknown in Istanbul between April and October today (0 in 29 years), so it is the one real oddity, but it rests on Kritovoulos, who was not there and uses it as a Bible-style sign, and Barbaro, who was there, does not mention it; smoke from the siege guns and fires is another possibility. (4) The light on the dome comes from a later Russian tale, and Barbaro records huge Ottoman camp fires on 26 May that would light the city. Verdict so far: most of the omens do not need a volcano; the fog is unexplained.

How it connects

This hunch is about The mystery eruption of 1452/53 and the omens at the fall of Constantinople

This hunch we read it in Nicolo Barbaro, Giornale dell'assedio di Costantinopoli 1453, ed. E. Cornet, Vienna 1856. Day-by-day eyewitness diary by a Venetian inside the city

This hunch we read it in Kritovoulos, History of Mehmed the Conqueror (written about 1465), Hungarian translation by K. Szabo 1875, sections 183 to 185; English by C. Riggs 1954, p. 59. Not an eyewitness

This hunch is supported by Base rate: an all-day fog in Istanbul in late spring almost never happens base rate: such a fog almost never happens in late spring

This hunch is argued against by Barbaro: the full Moon rose like a three-day Moon, and the air was clear as crystal, 22 May 1453 the Moon was an ordinary partial eclipse; the air was clear

This hunch is argued against by Barbaro: the Turks lit huge fires across their whole camp, 26 May 1453 camp fires can explain the lights

This hunch is supported by Kritovoulos: hailstorm during the icon procession, then a whole day of fog a day of fog in late spring is very rare

This hunch came from this step Checked the Constantinople omens of May 1453 against the sky and the weather