Discovery Board
Hunch Not checked yet AD 1872

Mostly known: the drift fits abandonment on 25 Nov (Richardson 2007); only the storm of 30 Nov to 2 Dec against the 1873 'no heavy weather' argument may be new

Checked 26 October 2026 against Blumberg 2007 (pasted by Ken). MacGregor and Richardson used the same ship-log database (ICOADS) and found the ship could have drifted from Santa Maria to the meeting point with no crew: 'it basically just sailed itself'. They also put the abandonment on the morning of 25 Nov, after rough seas and winds over 35 knots the night before, a likely fouled pump, and a chronometer error of about 120 miles that made landfall three days late. Our drift result (about 5 percent of the observed wind speed, sailing across the wind) independently reproduces theirs: a calibration, not a discovery. What the article does not mention: the force 10-12 north-west storm of 30 Nov to 2 Dec on her route (pressure fall of 27 hPa), which answers the 1873 inquiry's claim that she met no heavy weather and so must have been abandoned later, and fits her blown-out foresail and upper fore-topsail. Small and possibly in the film itself; not worth an email on its own.

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