Checked the Mary Celeste's drift against the 1872 weather
Fetched the 20th Century Reanalysis around the Azores (too blurry: it misses the gales) and the 1872 ship reports (ICOADS, Dutch logs). The ships logged gales and a force 10-12 storm on the drift route. The 375-mile drift needs only about 5 percent of the real wind speed, but she must have sailed across the wind on the port tack for much of the time. The 1873 inquiry's 'no heavy weather' reason for a late abandonment does not hold. Prior work by MacGregor and Richardson (2007) still to be read.
How it connects
This step led us to
The 1872 reanalysis is too blurry here: it misses the gales the ships logged
This step led us to
The real winds make the 375-mile drift easy in distance, but she must have sailed across the wind, not just drifted
This step led us to
Ship logs: gales along the drift route on 26-27 Nov and a force 10-12 north-west storm on 30 Nov to 2 Dec
This step led us to
Mostly known: the drift fits abandonment on 25 Nov (Richardson 2007); only the storm of 30 Nov to 2 Dec against the 1873 'no heavy weather' argument may be new
This step is about
Why was the Mary Celeste found sailing with no one aboard (December 1872)?
This step and then
Read the 2007 Smithsonian account: the drift result was already known
This step came after
Tested the Ugarit eclipse tablet dates for the Bronze Age collapse