Tested the Ugarit eclipse tablet dates for the Bronze Age collapse
Computed the three proposed eclipses at Ugarit with NASA's elements, under both the 2004 and 2016 Earth-rotation models, plus a base-rate scan of 1400 to 1180 BC with Mars positions. None is securely total; 1223 BC needs a rotation value about 2 sigma off. The drought evidence (Manning 2023) was not re-tested.
How it connects
This step led us to
No candidate eclipse was securely total at Ugarit; 1223 BC about 5 to 11 percent
This step led us to
KTU 1.78 records the total eclipse of 5 March 1223 BC
This step is about
When and why did the Late Bronze Age cities fall (about 1200 to 1180 BC)?
This step and then
Checked the Mary Celeste's drift against the 1872 weather
This step came after
Checked the Roanoke and Jamestown droughts with the seasonal rainfall atlas