Checked the Roanoke and Jamestown droughts with the seasonal rainfall atlas
The many-site atlas confirms an extreme drought at Roanoke but places it in 1586 to 1588 (1587 the worst), overlapping the first colony too; Jamestown's 1606 to 1612 drought is real but less extreme. The published mortality-drought correlation could not be reproduced from the archived data.
How it connects
This step led us to
Seasonal rainfall atlas: the Roanoke drought was 1586 to 1588, worst in 1587
This step led us to
Jamestown deaths and drought: the archived numbers give r = -0.11, not the published -0.71
This step led us to
The Roanoke drought began in 1586 and also hit Ralph Lane's first colony
This step and then
Tested the Ugarit eclipse tablet dates for the Bronze Age collapse
This step came after
Tested the Maya city shutdowns against two drought records