Hunch Not checked yet 1223 BC

KTU 1.78 records the total eclipse of 5 March 1223 BC

Checked 25 October 2026. 1223 BC is the only total eclipse of the period with Mars beside the Sun, which explains the choice. But Ugarit's chance of totality is only about 5 to 11 percent unless Earth's rotation correction is set about 2 sigma high, and the 1989 paper set it from this very eclipse, so date and correction are partly circular. Not ruled out, but it should not be used as a fixed anchor for Ugarit's chronology or for Earth's rotation. The 1192 BC link to Ugarit's fall is no more likely on the astronomy (0.15 to 0.20).

How it connects

This hunch is about When and why did the Late Bronze Age cities fall (about 1200 to 1180 BC)?

This hunch we read it in de Jong and van Soldt 1989, The earliest known solar eclipse record redated, Nature 338:238 (KTU 1.78 = 5 March 1223 BC, using the visibility of Mars)

This hunch is argued against by No candidate eclipse was securely total at Ugarit; 1223 BC about 5 to 11 percent only 5 to 11 percent chance of totality at Ugarit

This hunch came from this step Tested the Ugarit eclipse tablet dates for the Bronze Age collapse