Base rate: the Odyssey's clues fit some new Moon about once every 64 years

scripts/odyssey_dates.py applies the paper's search rules to all 17,316 new Moons from 2000 to 601 BC (season window tied to each year's equinox; Venus rising 90+ minutes before the Sun on Day -5; Mercury's rising-azimuth turning point within 2 days of Day -34). Checks: it reproduces the paper's facts for 1178 BC exactly (Venus 103 minutes ahead on 11 April; Mercury turning 12-13 March). Result: 22 fitting dates in 1,400 years, one every 64 years, so about 2 are expected in the paper's 135-year window; in that window both 18 March 1189 BC and 16 April 1178 BC fit. Adding the extra equinox clue (raft sunk 0 to 4 days after the equinox): one date every 280 to 470 years (also 15 April 1007 BC and 15 April 1349 BC), not one in 2,000.