The Odyssey's sky clues single out the eclipse day, 16 April 1178 BC
Checked 25 October 2026. Two weaknesses, both measurable: (1) with the clues the paper actually searched with, some date fits about every 64 years, so finding one or two in a 135-year window is what chance gives (18 March 1189 BC fits as well as 1178); even with the extra equinox clue the rate is about one every 280 to 470 years, 4 to 7 times commoner than the paper's 'one day in 2,000 years'. (2) The eclipse was probably not total at Ithaca: about a 31 percent chance, partial with both NASA's and the paper's own Earth-rotation value. The philological objections (Gainsford 2012: the scene is indoors, nobody else sees it, Hermes as Mercury is unattested before Plato) still stand. I found no published rerun of the date search.
How it connects
This hunch is about
Does the Odyssey record the eclipse of 16 April 1178 BC?
This hunch we read it in
Baikouzis and Magnasco 2008, Is an eclipse described in the Odyssey?, PNAS 105, 8823
This hunch is argued against by
Base rate: the Odyssey's clues fit some new Moon about once every 64 years the clues fit a date every ~64 years
This hunch is argued against by
The 16 April 1178 BC eclipse: only about a 1 in 3 chance it was total at Ithaca only a 31 percent chance of totality at Ithaca
This hunch came from this step
Reran the Odyssey eclipse date search over 1,400 years