The 1054 supernova, not the Sun, made the carbon-14 rise of 1053 to 1055
A rival to our 1052 hunch. The Crab supernova was first seen on 4 July 1054. If its gamma rays raised carbon-14, the rise should start in the 1054 or 1055 ring, which is what Scifo 2024 and Terrasi 2020 see. If the rise starts in the 1053 ring, which is what Brehm 2021, Eastoe 2019 and Rakowski 2026 see, the supernova came too late and a solar event in late 1052 fits better.
Points against this hunch: Dee et al. 2016 looked at tree rings across four historical supernovae and found no carbon-14 rise at any of them, including 1054. Panyushkina et al. 2022 could not attribute the signal to either cause. Standard physics says a supernova 6,500 light years away is far too weak to change carbon-14 measurably.
What to check next
- Find a published calculation of how much carbon-14 a supernova at 6,500 light years could add
- Get more trees with annual rings across 1050 to 1058 measured in one lab
How it connects
This hunch argues against
The 1052 white vapour matches the 1052 radiocarbon candidate rival explanation for the same rise
This hunch is about
1052 carbon-14 candidate
This hunch is about
1054 supernova
This hunch we read it in
Terrasi et al. 2020, Can the 14C production in 1055 CE be affected by SN1054?, Radiocarbon 62(5)
This hunch is supported by
Furness Abbey oak, England: no clear jump at 1052 to 1053, a small rise 1054 to 1055 onset near 1054
This hunch is supported by
California sequoia and Finnish pine: radiocarbon rise around 1054 to 1055 at both sites
This hunch came from this step
Pulled the raw radiocarbon numbers
This hunch has this hunch or step
Which ring rises first? Undecidable with today's data