Which ring rises first? Undecidable with today's data

Ring-by-ring Delta-14C, permil, from the papers' own tables: Brehm oak STK-C10 (England, ETH lab): 1051 -8.6, 1052 -10.6, 1053 -4.8, 1054 -3.6, 1055 -2.9, 1056 -4.9. First high ring 1053. Scifo oak BIF-E19 (Furness Abbey, England, Groningen lab): 1051 -8.5, 1052 -6.2, 1053 -7.3, 1054 -6.3, 1055 -1.8, 1056 -2.8. First high ring 1055. Rakowski oak (Kujawy, Poland): 1042 to 1052 average -11.0, 1053 -6.9, 1055 -2.6. First high ring 1053. Eastoe full-ring sequoia (California, Arizona lab): rise 1052 to 1053 per Brehm 2021 and Panyushkina 2022. First high ring 1053. Terrasi early- and late-wood sequoia (California) and Finnish pine: rise 1054 to 1055, about 4 permil. First high ring 1055. Tally: three series say 1053, three say 1055. Two of the disagreeing series are sequoias from the same mountains, so the offset is more likely laboratory or ring-dating differences than two real events. Panyushkina et al. 2022 reached the same conclusion with dynamic time warping: one event, smeared by a one- to two-year dating offset, cause undecidable.

What this means for our hunch: the timing test cannot confirm or kill a December 1052 solar event right now. Three independent trees put the first high ring at 1053, which is what our hunch predicts. Three others put it at 1055. Until several trees from different places are measured ring by ring in one laboratory, the published series cannot settle it. Dee et al. 2016 found no radiocarbon rise at four other historical supernovae, which weighs against the supernova rival but does not settle it either.