Hunch Looked, found nothing 1576 BC

Pankenier's five-planet omen of 1576 BC: our sky check agrees with Keenan, only four planets could be seen

Checked 26 October 2026 (calibration of a known critique, not new). The five planets were within 26 degrees in mid-November 1576 BC but hidden in the Sun's glare; the visible sight in late December was four planets within 4.4 degrees. Tight four-planet gatherings like it happen about once every 60 years in this period (1595, 1576, 1529 BC), and the text says the planets 'moved in disorder', not that they met. A better five-planet sight came in March 1535 BC.

Tests we ran on this

No chance number Could all five planets be seen together in 1576 BC? No: all five were close only when 4 degrees from the Sun; only four could be seen (agrees with Keenan). (decided before looking, 2026-10-26) · scoreboard

How it connects

This hunch is about Why did the Xia dynasty fall (about 1600 to 1530 BC), and do the omens told of its end remember a real eruption?

This hunch is argued against by 1576 BC: all five planets within 26 degrees, but only 4 degrees from the Sun (unseeable); what could be seen in late December was four planets within 4.4 degrees four, not five, visible

This hunch is supported by 'The five planets moved in disorder, at midnight stars fell like rain, the earth shook, the Yi and Luo dried up' in Jie's 10th year (1580 BC by the current text)

This hunch came from this step Started the end of the Xia: the Bamboo Annals' 'three suns' lands on the 1561 BC eruption, but only by chance