Step Done 2026-10-26

Looked for dry years in 1561-1550 BC in the raw juniper rings of the Qilian Mountains

The published rainfall record starts in 1500 BC, but its raw cores go back to 2637 BC. With 12 cores, 1561-1546 BC comes out somewhat dry (driest tenth of 1800-1300 BC), with sharp dry years in 1558 and 1548 BC, and rings tend to be narrow two years after eruptions (not strong once the tries are counted). The trees are 1,400 km west of Erlitou and follow local rain, so this is weak support only. No layer-counted record from Henan or Shanxi reaches that far back. Lead stays OPEN.

How it connects

This step led us to Juniper rings (Qilian Mountains, 1,400 km west of Erlitou): 1561-1546 BC was somewhat dry, with sharp dry years in 1558 and 1548 BC, from only 12 cores

This step is about The early books remember failed harvests, mixed cold and heat and a five-year drought at the Xia's end; the ice cores show four eruptions in 1561-1550 BC, about when Erlitou ended

This step is about Why did the Xia dynasty fall (about 1600 to 1530 BC), and do the omens told of its end remember a real eruption?

This step and then Checked the radiocarbon dates for the end of Erlitou; the Xia lead is parked

This step came after Started the end of the Xia: the Bamboo Annals' 'three suns' lands on the 1561 BC eruption, but only by chance