Clue from nature 1561 BC 📍 Greenland and Antarctic ice cores

The current text's sky and weather entries land on ice-core eruption years no more often than chance (p = 0.23)

scripts/xia_annals.py. Eight sky, weather and earth entries from Yin Jia to Tai Jia, put in BC years by the text's own 60-year-cycle chain (anchored at Tang 18 = 1558 BC). Three have an eruption of 5 Tg S or more in the same year or the year before: three suns 1561 BC (eruption 1561), Mount Qu collapsed 1560 BC (1561), drought 1557-1552 BC (1558, 1555). Sliding the whole timeline from 34 years earlier to 18 years later (as far as the ice-core list allows) gives 1.5 matches on average, and 12 of 53 shifts do as well or better. Misses: planets in disorder and the Yi-Luo drying 1580 BC, Mount Tai shaking 1590 BC, great fog 1534 BC, and the ten suns of the ancient text, 1675 BC in this chain (eruption of 20 Tg S in 1678 BC). Note: the chain has large gaps between reigns before Jie (38 years after Yin Jia, 27 after Kong Jia, in all three editions checked), so the early dates are weak.

How it connects

This clue from nature argues against The 'three suns' of 1561 BC fall in the same year as the 2022 Thera candidate, but only by the current text's own year count, which was built centuries later chance level, p 0.23

This clue from nature is a clue for Why did the Xia dynasty fall (about 1600 to 1530 BC), and do the omens told of its end remember a real eruption?

This clue from nature we read it in Pearson, Sigl and others 2022, Geochemical ice-core constraints on the timing and climatic impact of Aniakchak II (1628 BCE) and Thera (Minoan) volcanic eruptions, PNAS Nexus 1(2) pgac048 (Table 2: all sulfate events 1680-1500 BCE)

This clue from nature we read it in Bamboo Annals, 'current text' (jinben), with Shen Yue's notes, Sibu Congkan edition (Ming Tianyi Ge print), juan 1, on Chinese Wikisource; checked against the Siku Quanshu edition

This clue from nature came from this step Started the end of the Xia: the Bamboo Annals' 'three suns' lands on the 1561 BC eruption, but only by chance